Peter Saxon speaks to all Three Wise Men of FM.
Survey 8 was pretty much a dead rubber for the big three commercial FM networks. ARN could not care less that MIX Breakfast closed on a 3.3 share any more than SCA felt the need to worry about the 0.8 drop experienced by Kyle and Jackie O. In fact, they’d be hoping it’s a trend they’ll take to their new home at KIIS.
Apart from the smaller markets, there wasn’t much point dissecting this survey in Sydney or Melbourne in any depth because for the most part it has little to do with what just happened and everything to do with what will happen in 2014.
In Sydney, all DMG has to do is sit pat while the other two fight it out between them and like Steven Bradbury in 2002, skate past for the gold. Says Group PD, Paul Jackson, “When I break down the under 40 market, it’s going to be really squeezed next year. You’ve got Nova and 2Day. And now you’ve got KIIS. We are already market leader at Nova breakfast. We’ve got 406,000 listeners. 2Day has 391,000 and falling. Clearly, they’re going to fall some more with the changes that have been forced upon them.
“They (Kyle and Jackie O) are not going to take all the listeners with them so actually an average will be somewhere in between for those stations (2Day and KIIS). Which, in theory would leave them behind Nova,” says Jackson.
But while Jackson talks cumes, Duncan Campbell at ARN speaks of share, “Kyle and Jack are still a 10 share breakfast show versus a seven on Nova. We’d take that 10 any day.
It’s very difficult to build a successful breakfast show. It’s just not easy to do. You know the old saying in radio: ‘You either build or you buy,’” says Campbell. “I think the survey results on MIX 1065 highlight why we were so keen to get Kyle and Jackie O across.”
It’s not just Nova where Jackson expects to pick up listeners by default, he reckons smoothfm could be a beneficiary of the axing of MIX. Jackson explains, “MIX still has 600,000 listeners and plenty of them won’t want to hear Kyle and Jackie O’s top 40 records. So there is a real opportunity here for smooth going forward.”
SCA’s Head of Content Craig Bruce does not disagree, “There is an audience sitting on MIX at the moment that are probably there because they don’t like Kyle and Jack. So, how many of those will they lose to other stations? Potentially to us. Certainly to smooth or to Nova.”
But while SCA may be licking its wounds from having lost its heritage breakfast show in Sydney, which has won 52 straight FM surveys for them, it has suddenly emerged as the owner of the number one FM “heritage” breakfast show in Melbourne. Triple M’s Hot Breakfast with Eddie McGuire, Mick Molloy and Luke Darcy turned in a 9.3 share to place it at number one FM, way ahead of GOLD’s Brig and Lehmo who many expected would be the major beneficiaries from the departure of Nova100’s Hughesy & Kate along with Fox’s Matt & Jo.
“Yeah well we have an amazing breakfast show in Melbourne, don’t we,” says Bruce, “An incredible success story for us. I mean, there are very few breakfast shows that I can think of that started at a three and are sitting at the moment on a 9.3.”
Campbell concedes that Melbourne remains a difficult market for ARN, “GOLD has performed well but not as well as we’d hoped. But we’ve got a lot of confidence in the format and I think that breakfast show in underperforming – not due to effort or talent – but it’s not getting the level of reporting that we expect.”
Interestingly, the new breakfast shows on Nova and Fox next year will both feature this year’s top Drive talent from their respective networks. DMG’s Paul Jackson is buoyed by Survey 8’s drive results and points out, “At the moment you’ve got Meshell and Tommy V Fifi and Dave (slated for breakfast next year). Meshell’s Drive performance was 10.8 and Fifi’s was 10.2. That’s the best win we’ve had in many a year in Drive. That alone gives us great confidence in the show we are putting forward into Melbourne next year.”
Campbell predicts, “2014 is going to be the year of DMG and ARN.” 2013 has already been a great year for DMG with the Nova Network number one under 40, nationally.
In truth, all three networks will have their work cut out for them next year, “No arrogance here. We know it’s going to be hard but its going to be very exciting and were ready for the challenge,” says Jackson.
For ARN, they are going to have make it pay. One of their sales managers told us that while it is thrilling to have the opportunity to present top name talent to advertisers his sales targets will be through the roof.
But it is SCA that undoubtedly has the biggest challenge ahead of them. Yet no one is silly enough to write them off. Craig Bruce is tasked with replacing three heritage breakfast shows (Syd, Mel and Perth) and a national Drive show and more, all pretty much, by the end of next month.
Perhaps like a duck that looks to be gliding effortlessly across the pond while the feet are paddling furiously, Bruce seems unfazed. He tells us, “We see it as a line in the sand moment for Today. It’s the end of an era. With Kyle and Jack and Matt and Jo finishing, it’s a chance for us to reset and rebuild.
“We know that there’s a lot of work to be done and that Nova has some really strong under 40 figures around the country that we intend to take off them. It’s just a question of how long that takes. We’re going to do it by being as inventive and as original as we possibly can. And throw caution to the wind and make as many interesting and compelling moments that we can across the course of next year.
“Certainly the tone and feel and energy across the network next year will be different because we have three new breakfast shows and a new national drive show and because we feel that it’s time for a change and a reset around where the network needs to sit. So there are going to be some really interesting new developments next year, for sure,” says Bruce
GAME ON!