Political strategists know that election dates must be planned to avoid big events.

In Australia, only the Prime Minister has the power to name an election date, although there are many factors a PM must consider when making a decision. PM Kevin Rudd and his close advisors will be doing their calculations daily as the political winds shift constantly.

Factors in the equation include election law, which mandates that the date for a federal election is at the discretion of the Governor-General on advice from the Prime Minister. Taking into account the issuing of writs, nominations and a range of technical factors, the latest date a House of Representatives election must be called is no later than three years and three months after the previous election.

That would make the latest possible date for a House of Representatives election Saturday, 30 November 2013. If PM Rudd wants to leave it as long as possible to go to the polls, he would have to announce the election 33 days before 30 November.

If he leaves it as late as possible he has the option to recall Parliament for an August sitting and take his chances in the political arena against Tony Abbott, who has slipped in the polls since Rudd was reappointed PM.

If PM Rudd decided to cash in his chips now and take a gamble on an immediate election, calculating that his chances of winning now are better than later, Australians would go to the polls in 33 days from the day of the announcement (when ‘writs’ are issued). If an election was announced today the earliest Aussies could be voting would be the end of August.

So, with a window of opportunity between August and November, what factors will the political strategists be considering?

Never call an election during a major sporting event

Cricket – the Ashes Tour of England may have been a factor when it looked like we might win some matches. Despite the heroic efforts 19 year old Ashton Agar which made it look as though we had a chance against the Poms, the Australian team’s hopes of victory in England are now in tatters. So from an electoral strategy point of view, no one cares about this current tour any more.

Cricket followers may also be more likely to be Liberal Supporters than Labor, so Rudd will care less about the thoughts of cricket followers than footy fans, who are thought to favour Labor parties more than Liberals.

AFL Grand Final – The 2013 Grand Final will be held on Saturday 28th September 2013, with the weeks before also being important lock out dates, when no one in AFL states wants to think about political matters.

Rugby League Grand Final – The NRL Grand Final 2013 will be played on Sunday, October 6, with overlapping final season dates being important to voters in Rugby League states.

Boat people policy

Domestic policy, such as the cost of living, unemployment, inflation and other hip pocket factors, is always more important in voting intentions than foreign policy, but Australia’s economy is in relatively good shape compared with other international economies. The dollar has fallen by 10% against the US in past months, which is good news for exporters, and economic conditions are pretty neutral this election. Therefore foreign policy can again creep into campaigning and the most important item of foreign policy for both parties is asylum seeker boat arrivals.

PM Rudd will have to make a judgement about whether the rise in his approval rating from his most recent changes to asylum seeker policy and his PNG resettlement strategy are worth cashing in now, or whether he should wait until the policies are actually implemented before he goes to the polls. It’s a toss up between a bird in the hand now or something batter later.

Photo opportunity in a war zone

Expect a visit to a war zone from the PM as an indicator that an announcement is near.

Older voters – The conservative talk radio factor

Although a date has not yet been called, all Australia’s politicians have been behaving as though they are on the campaign trail for weeks now and this week Tony Abbott spent his time with Seniors.

Are seniors more likely to vote Liberal than Labor? Those who listen to Alan Jones and conservative talk radio certainly will, but the number of commercial talk radio listeners sits at between 10% to 20%. In a close election, this margin may be enough to tip the balance, but will not be enough to win or lose an election in its own right. Talk radio’s influence is usually stronger in the cooler months mid year than end of the year.

The ABC’s Insiders program today made the point about Seniors today in a clip 25 minutes into the program comparing Abbott’s campaigning this week with Rudd’s. Click here to view.

Younger voters – The Bieber factor

In contrast to Tony Abbot, who was photographed all last week with seniors, Kevin Rudd was busy courting juniors, playing the daggy dad, posing for selfies on school kids’ camera phones and posting photos on social media.

Under 18s don’t vote, but the 18-24 demographic, some of them voting for the first time, will be another factor in a close election and an important consideration in the Rudd strategy. And under 18s still have influence in the household, just ask advertisers targeting this demographic who testify to the pester power of teenagers to influence buying intentions.

Here’s where the Justin Bieber Tour dates come into play.  Bieber Fever will swamp media coverage and social media once the Bieb hits Australian shores. The tour begins on 27 November, with the first concert in Rudd’s electorate, at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre, so, if it is a late election, it will have to be just before the Bieber tour begins.

Smallzy interviewed Bieber about his tour dates last year.

Given all the factors, what’s your guess on the election date? Post your serious or flippant speculation below.